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Once again, the Iranian regime is resorting to its time-tested strategy of stalling nuclear negotiations while attempting to buy time in the face of growing international pressure. In an interview with Iran newspaper on March 13, Abbas Araghchi, the clerical regime’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated: “Under maximum pressure, we will not negotiate.” However, he simultaneously admitted that indirect negotiations through back channels—such as Oman’s Muscat channel—are still an option, adding, “This is neither new nor unusual; it has happened many times in history.”
This is yet another instance of the Iranian regime employing double-talk—publicly rejecting talks while secretly seeking indirect negotiations to alleviate sanctions. The regime hopes to create the illusion of diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where the snapback mechanism looms over Tehran as a grave threat.
The Shadow of the Snapback Mechanism
This week, the UN Security Council (UNSC) convened behind closed doors to discuss Iran’s nuclear advancements. The meeting has caused panic within the Iranian leadership, as it raises the prospect of triggering the snapback mechanism, which would automatically reimpose all previous UN sanctions on Tehran without the need for a new vote. The regime’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani strongly objected to the UNSC meeting, calling it a “provocative and illegitimate session” that constitutes a “blatant political move” designed to pressure Iran.
#Iranian Regime’s Desperate Tactics to Prevent Snapback Sanctions as #UNSC 2231 Deadline Loomshttps://t.co/V3KFc1K9TJ
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 5, 2025
However, Western powers, led by the United States, Britain, France, and Germany, have become increasingly vocal about Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is alarmingly close to weapons-grade levels. Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirm that Iran has significantly increased its 60% enriched uranium stockpile, which Western officials argue has no civilian justification. In response, the E3 (France, Germany, and the UK) have warned that Iran’s nuclear defiance may leave them with no choice but to reactivate UN sanctions through the snapback mechanism.
Iran’s Desperate Attempts to Avert the Snapback
Tehran is scrambling to prevent the snapback scenario through both intimidation and pacification tactics. In an attempt to pressure European governments, the regime’s Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of France, Germany, and the UK to protest their stance at the UNSC. Iranian state media accused the IAEA of acting under U.S. pressure and warned of retaliatory measures if sanctions are reinstated.
Reuters reported on March 12 that Iran is set to participate in a high-level meeting with Russia and China in Beijing on the nuclear issue, a calculated move to create the illusion of diplomacy while sidestepping direct negotiations and accountability.
The Real Goal of #Iran’s Negotiations: Surviving, Not Settling https://t.co/TaSPUkGx6K
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 29, 2025
Despite these maneuvers, the international community remains unconvinced. Tehran’s pattern of non-compliance has eroded trust, and its latest signals are widely seen as a ploy to delay accountability rather than a genuine diplomatic effort.
Internal Crisis: Economic Collapse and Regime’s Fear of Unrest
Beyond international pressure, the Iranian regime faces a deepening domestic crisis that limits its ability to engage in prolonged defiance. Essential goods such as rice, oil, and tea have witnessed a 100% price increase, while the housing market has spiraled out of control, with property prices in Tehran skyrocketing from 80 million to 125 million tomans per square meter.
As economic conditions worsen, the regime fears widespread protests similar to those seen in 2017, 2019, and 2022, where economic grievances escalated into nationwide anti-regime demonstrations. These economic disasters expose the regime’s fundamental contradiction: while Tehran pours billions into its nuclear ambitions, over 60% of Iranians live below the poverty line.
How Many #Iranians Live Below the #Poverty Line?https://t.co/fClcBw6aLX
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 11, 2024
Tehran’s Losing Battle Against Global and Domestic Pressure
The Iranian regime is trapped in a double crisis—international isolation and domestic collapse. On the global stage, Tehran dreads the UN snapback mechanism, which would cripple its economy even further. At home, economic devastation has fueled widespread resentment, threatening mass uprisings.
Despite its aggressive rhetoric and deceptive diplomatic maneuvers, Iran’s ruling clerics know that their nuclear gamble is reaching its breaking point. The question now is whether the international community will hold firm and call Tehran’s bluff—or once again fall for its endless cycle of delays and empty promises.