Three-minute read
As Iran faces escalating regional tensions and the prospect of strategic failure, top officials in the clerical regime are showing signs of deep worry over potential social backlash. Once united in projecting external enemies as existential threats to rally domestic support, Iran’s ruling elite now find themselves divided, with some acknowledging the limits of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s regional ambitions and others clinging to his aggressive policies.
On Saturday morning, October 26, amid an Israeli airstrike on military targets in Iran, the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s Center for Combatting Organized Crime, known as “Gerdab,” issued a statement, labeling “any transmission of images or news” to “hostile media or outlets affiliated with the Zionist regime” as a “crime.” The statement further warned that, according to the law, “any individual or group cooperating in any way with hostile foreign governments against the Islamic Republic of Iran will, if not deemed an enemy combatant, be sentenced to one to ten years in prison.”
Ali Larijani, a former Speaker of Parliament and adviser to Khamenei often labeled a “moderate” by some Western analysts, recently turned against those within the government who are calling for a retreat from Khamenei’s regional strategy. He framed the regime’s regional presence as essential to “national security,” stating on October 20, “Some say if Hamas had not acted, this crisis would not have escalated so drastically. But in the current circumstances, it’s impossible to provide a precise answer to that question. It takes time.”
More Signs of #Iran’s Regional Strategy Collapse Emerge as #Lebanon Pushes Backhttps://t.co/FpMuRXmaN8
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 19, 2024
Larijani argued further, “Given that Arab nations in the region had already submitted to Israel, it was the responsibility of Islamic Republic officials to act decisively to defend national security and to put the defiant Israel in its place. Some question why Iran supports the Resistance, saying it fuels enmity with Israel. But as I’ve stated, this issue is tied to our national security and interests.”
On October 25, Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei-appointed Friday prayer leader in Mashhad, warned against what he called “infiltrators” into Iran’s administrative ranks, thereby undermining the Supreme Leader’s directive to “prevent the revolution from falling into unworthy hands.”
He cautioned that some misuse “national unity” to promote ideas like negotiating with the U.S. and compromising the regime’s proxy warfare. “They dilute the discourse of resistance under the guise of unity, suggesting that submission to America aligns with national unity. Instead, we must stand firm in the resistance strategy central to our national interests.”
Meanwhile, cleric Masoud Ali, a close associate of Khamenei, issued a public rebuke of internal critics of the regime, calling on the judiciary to prosecute dissidents with wartime urgency: “We’re at war; they should be tried like during wartime.” He condemned those questioning the regional strategy, calling some “ignorant if not traitors.”
#Khamenei’s Friday Prayer Sermon Exposes #Iranian Regime’s Fears of Regional Strategy Collapsehttps://t.co/N4iMAAbqXp
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 4, 2024
Referring to a statement from the “Assembly of Scholars and Researchers of Qom” that criticized the costs of the regime’s interventions, Ali railed against “a handful of washed-up political figures,” accusing them of appeasement and saying, “This shameful statement asked why the people are burdened with these costs.”
Ali also highlighted the infighting and personal attacks within the military ranks, adding, “After Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, there was a two-month delay in our response. During that period, the media and others publicly accused IRGC commanders — General Baqeri, General Salami, General Hajizadeh — of ‘political impotence,’ calling them, frankly, ‘politically impotent.’ Such mistrust has taken hold. Should it be this way?”
Adding to the internal divisions, Alireza Erafi, head of the regime’s seminaries and Deputy Chair of the Assembly of Experts, criticized the Qom scholars’ call for de-escalation. Speaking on state television on October 24, he dismissed the two-state solution as “unacceptable on any level and a severe strategic error,” insisting that “we are at a historic juncture requiring vigilance, wise decisions, and firm steps against the enemies who seek to bring the Islamic world to its knees.”
Behind Regional Aggression, #Iran Conceals an Underlying Internal Perilhttps://t.co/EktfmSNhGL
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 30, 2024
Over the past four decades, all factions within the clerical dictatorship have consistently allied around its regional strategy, with key figures often posing for photo-ops alongside Tehran-backed militia commanders and the late Quds Force leader, Qassem Soleimani. Unlike the 2022 protests, when former presidents, parliament speakers, and other high-ranking officials refrained from publicly supporting Khamenei, the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attacks saw regime leaders unanimously endorse the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and Khamenei’s regional ambitions.
Now, as Khamenei and his inner circle double down on their regional strategy, this approach has become yet another source of division and discord in Tehran, compounding the regime’s existing economic and social crises. The clerical regime is at its weakest point in decades, making this a pivotal moment for applying maximum pressure.
