In a telling article titled “Iraq, Iran’s Last Stronghold,” published by Ham Mihan on January 5, 2025, the clerical regime’s media acknowledges the dire consequences of recent regional shifts for Tehran. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria has left Iran scrambling to maintain its dwindling influence, with Iraq emerging as its final bastion in the region.
The article outlines a cascade of setbacks for Tehran, starting with the liberation of Syria, which the author claims has bolstered Turkey’s confidence while relegating Tehran to a defensive posture. “Iran has suffered a defeat and is naturally worried, adopting a defensive stance,” the piece admits, highlighting the regime’s acute vulnerability.
The article expresses alarm over the potential rise of a Sunni-led government in Syria, which could “destabilize Iraq”—a nation critical to Iran’s regional strategy. Such a scenario, it warns, would place Sunni Arabs on both sides of the Syria-Iraq border. Tehran’s anxiety is palpable: “If Sunnis in these regions regain power, the balance of power in Iraq will shift against Iran-backed Shias,” the article states.
A brief overview on how the #IRGCterrorists Quds Force rearranged the group perceived as the "Iraqi branch of Al-Qaeda" into the "Islamic State of Iraq" and then to #ISIS, helped cracking down on Iraqi and #Syrian uprisings and paved the way to create the PMF. pic.twitter.com/GwacqJhFPH
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 18, 2024
The article concedes that the Iranian regime’s influence is at an all-time low. Syria, once a cornerstone of Iran’s “Resistance Axis,” is now lost, and Hezbollah, Tehran’s powerful proxy, has been significantly weakened. “The fragile situation in Syria might spill over into Iraq, jeopardizing Iran’s entire national security strategy built over the last four decades,” it laments.
The article also warns of the evolving dynamics between Turkey and the United States, which could further isolate Iran. “For the first time, Turkey may collaborate with the U.S.—Iran’s arch-enemy—to act directly against Tehran’s regional interests,” it notes.
Highlighting the regime’s internal crises, the article admits that Iran’s economic condition is dire, social capital is eroding, and the state-society relationship is severely strained. This domestic fragility compounds Tehran’s inability to respond effectively to external threats. “In the current circumstances, Iraq remains Iran’s last stronghold in the region,” the piece concludes, underscoring the high stakes for the clerical regime.
#Iran News in Brief
Former #IRGCterrorists Chief Yahya Rahim-Safavi: "From Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen… you see what the Yemenis are doing. We have no choice but to extend the depth of our national defense and security. Our strategic defense depth lies in the… pic.twitter.com/lIZOkCoYcj— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 9, 2024
The clerical regime of Iran is now banking on tighter security cooperation with Iraq to counter perceived threats from Syria and beyond. However, as the article cautiously notes, this strategy rests on the assumption that Iraqi Shias can hold the line—a precarious bet given Tehran’s waning influence and mounting opposition.
The candid acknowledgment of these challenges by Iranian state media reflects a regime deeply aware of its vulnerabilities. As Tehran struggles to navigate the geopolitical fallout from Syria’s liberation, its desperation underscores the weakening grip of the clerical regime in a rapidly changing Middle East.