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The Iranian regime faces mounting warnings from within its ranks as concerns grow over the fragile state of Syria and the potential collapse of its regional influence. State-affiliated media, lawmakers, and former officials are voicing unprecedented criticism of Tehran’s costly involvement in Syria, urging the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to abandon his regional ambitions to safeguard the regime from internal and external crises.
On December 7, the state-aligned Etemad newspaper described the developments in Syria as deeply troubling. “The opponents of Assad’s government, taking advantage of the preoccupation of Iran, Syria, Russia, and Hezbollah with various crises, have intensified their attacks,” it wrote, adding, “But this is not the full story. We are witnessing a new map forming in the Middle East.” The paper warned that domestic disunity could further expose Iran to its adversaries, stating, “Internal tensions and conflicts are the perfect opportunity to weaken and defeat Iran. Divisiveness, which has plagued the Islamic Republic for decades, has grown like cancer within the system over the past twenty years.”
Similarly, Setareh Sobh expressed concern over the regime’s deep financial entanglements in Syria, calling it a strategic miscalculation. “Although Assad has remained in power with the support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, his authority is fractured. Syria, for Iran, has been a vital logistical hub for support to Lebanon, but the cost has been staggering.”
#Iran News: Officials and Analysts Reveal Regime’s Deep Anxiety Over Developments in #Syria and Lebanonhttps://t.co/JttsD0V3Pr
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 30, 2024
Former National Security Commission head Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh laid bare the extent of these costs, writing, “The state has yet to recover the expenses incurred during the 2010s. Promised land, mines, and oil deals never materialized. Even in phosphate exports, the Russians took over, leaving nothing for Iran. Syria demanded 12% of oil revenue, and now the Americans control its energy resources.”
The criticisms extended to Khamenei’s regional strategy, with some openly calling for its abandonment. Setareh Sobh urged Khamenei to reconsider, stating, “The fall of Assad would harm Iran greatly. It is time to learn from past mistakes and leave Arab affairs to the Arabs.”
Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament, warned of dire consequences if action is not taken immediately. “Syria is on the verge of collapse, and we are watching in silence,” he posted on X. “If Damascus falls, we will lose Lebanon and Iraq, and the enemy will be at our borders. We have shed much blood for Syria, but this silence is unacceptable.”
Larijani’s Trip Signals #Iran Regime’s Desperation to Maintain Control in #Lebanon and Syriahttps://t.co/A9pti7HAN8
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 21, 2024
Even Farhikhtegan, a publication linked to Ali Akbar Velayati, a key advisor to Khamenei, issued an implicit critique of the regime’s strategy, warning that the current foreign policy approach leaves Tehran vulnerable. “West Asia is undergoing dangerous transitions. Any political entity that fails to understand this reality will suffer. The government must reassess its foreign policy and regional approach to avoid catastrophic outcomes.”
The growing calls for a strategic shift from within the regime highlight a deep misunderstanding of Khamenei’s persistence with his regional agenda. For Khamenei, this approach is not a simple geopolitical strategy but a cornerstone of preserving the regime itself. His insistence reflects an attempt to project strength and maintain influence as a means of survival in the face of mounting pressures. However, the infighting among regime factions over survival strategies, coupled with the absence of a viable path forward, underscores a more profound reality: the entire regime is now bereft of options for ensuring its longevity and it takes a firm policy to bring about the change this region desperately needs.